Afghanistan and transnational war: Interlocking security dilemmas and strategic challenges

Abstract

Following the overthrow of the Taliban regime in 2001, the United States and Afghan governments have sought, with little success, to resolve Afghanistan’s regional problems through a political framework intended to knit the region together. This thesis investigates the reasons why a regional solution to the conflict in Afghanistan has not gained traction.

Traditional understandings of the security dilemma are conceptually refined, operationally expanded and thematically analysed. Conceptually, a distinction is drawn between genuine security dilemmas, involving benign actors, and strategic challenges, involving actors with malign intent. Operationally, bilateral formulations of the security dilemma are expanded to demonstrate the occurrence of multiple interlocking security dilemmas. Thematically, a case study method is used to explore these security conditions in terms of the structural, contextual and cognitive dynamics impeding regional cooperation. Three findings emerge.

First, Afghan leaders and their backers have failed to address key structural impediments, such as competing notions of security and regional stability, rival strategic interests and opposing power ambitions. The Afghan Taliban’s absolute goals, Pakistan’s malign orientation, and Saudi Arabia’s anti-Iranian and Salafist ideology have proved most debilitating.

Second, the metastases of Southwest Asia’s unresolved contextual reality tax an already rickety mechanism. The legacy of fraught historical relations, territorial disputes, state and non-state spoilers, armed conflict, and the effects of the Indian-Pakistani nuclear deterrent taints the politico-social environment, stymieing efforts to allay entrenched suspicions.

Third, advocates of a regional strategy have failed to consider fully how to reshape or moderate the cognitive perceptions of actors. High levels of fear (whether real or imagined), perverse enemy images, trust deficits and uncertainty arising from military postures exacerbate the challenge faced by those seeking an end to the conflict.

The thesis concludes that a regional solution seems unlikely. Afghanistan remains trapped in a web of interlocking security dilemmas and strategic challenges, each complicated by structural, contextual and cognitive factors. A better approach would be to strengthen Afghanistan through state-building and to focus diplomatic efforts on persuading or pressuring regional states to resolve their tensions bilaterally.