ASEAN Centrality and the Major Powers: South China Sea Case Study

Abstract

This research investigated the repercussions of major powers’ dynamics on ASEAN’s centrality in the South China Sea dispute. The author examined ASEAN’s evolving role in East Asia’s security architecture, the complexity of the South China Sea dispute and ASEAN’s attempts to manage tensions in the South China Sea. In addition, the author examined the political, economic and military activism that major powers (the U.S., China, Japan, India, Australia, and to a lesser extent, Canada, France, and the U.K.) have undertaken towards ASEAN to achieve their preferred policy regarding the South China Sea. Furthermore, the author elucidated the reasons why several ASEAN members have chosen to act in ways that are detrimental to the group’s strong stance on the South China Sea issue. The author argued that ASEAN has demonstrated centrality in the South China Sea issue although it has not come up with a strong collective position on the matter. Data collected during extensive field trips to Hanoi, Manila, Jakarta and Singapore and archival research reveal that major powers are entangled at different levels in ASEAN’s endeavour to manage the South China Sea maritime disputes. Major powers’ dynamics have resulted in two opposite impacts on ASEAN solidarity; they are dividing ASEAN and promoting regional cohesion. China and the U.S. are the two major actors engaged with ASEAN in the South China Sea issue. Japan, India, Australia, Canada, France and the U.K. have also demonstrated their increased activism in the region. By using its economic and military power, China has most intensified division within ASEAN via the role played by Cambodia, Laos and Brunei. Beijing’s activism eroded mutual trust among ASEAN members and ASEAN’s credibility. However, the effective division effect made by the exogenous players became a wake-up call for ASEAN. Since the 2012 fiasco, ASEAN has further understood the real threat of external intervention, its own operational problems and most importantly the significance of ASEAN solidarity in the rivalry for influence among world powers. The research furthers the conclusion that a united ASEAN is the only way the Association can avoid being entrapped in ‘the game of thrones’ between major powers.