The Proliferation Security Initiative, 2003-2008: A New and Effective Model for Proliferation Prevention?

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Abstract
The objective of this dissertation is to explore and evaluate the development and effectiveness of political commitments and the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) as proliferation prevention and international security tool. This study evaluates how PSI differed from other more traditional multilateral proliferation preventions activities and the degree to which it was a departure from conventional strategies at the time for countering weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The paper assesses in detail how the Bush Administration changed from a platform largely rejecting multilateralism and international engagement, to a policy of reaching out diplomatically to other countries to persuade and ultimately develop a global initiative based on unenforceable political commitments. The research indicates that sweeping changes in the perceptions of the WMD threat due to 9/11 and the aftermath of two additional events, the So San interdiction and the rollback of A.Q. Khan Network, radically changed the Bush Administration's strategy for combating WMD proliferation. This dissertation will assess the degree to which PSI represents not just a change in policy but a change in process, will examine how this change came to be, and will assess what the impacts of the PSI process are. The scope of this effort is to study the process of the development of PSI during the George W. Bush Administration. Through the methodology of process tracing and participant / observer analysis, this dissertation provides a rich and "thick" description of the origins and development of PSI and the process which led to PSI's conception and implementation. While much policy analysis is written on PSI and its relative value - what PSI got "right" or "wrong," little is written on the process that led to PSI. PSI as conceived, developed and implemented, represents a unique opportunity to explore the maturation of an international regime by policy-makers hesitant to embrace multilateral solutions. Why did the Bush White House change its approach to WMD proliferation? What circumstances and who drove this change? These "how" and "why now" questions are addressed in this dissertation.
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Love, Richard
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2017
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PhD Doctorate
UNSW Faculty
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