Can ASEAN Work? Political and Strategic Diversity within a shifting Indo-Pacific Order.

Abstract

The research paper discusses whether ASEAN can be a functional entity, given the current levels of political and strategic diversity among its members and the increased rivalry between the great powers in the region. The research paper argues that ASEAN's utility, relevance and ultimately legitimacy is coming under doubt because its capacity to unify its own members behind a shared threat perception is being challenged by the diversity of its members' strategic orientations and political values. This challenge is being exacerbated by the backdrop of great power rivalry between China and the United States in the region. ASEAN's resulting ineffectiveness from its inability to unify its own members appears to be compelling some of its members to align themselves more with a diverse range of external actors to secure their domestic interests. The asymmetrical relations that have evolved among some of its members and external actors are posing challenges to ASEAN's unity. This is because recipient states potentially risk jeopardizing these lucrative relations by demonstrating solidarity with ASEAN and adopting a position that is deemed as inimical to the external actor's interest. As a consequence, some member states have used the Association's own processes and mechanisms such as the consensus-based decision-making process and the Chairperson position to deliberately undermine ASEAN's unity to protect these asymmetrical relations. There appears to be a new dimension to ASEAN's disunity as the Association's capacity and credibility to exercise its influence in the region appear to be affected from within. The resulting acrimony and division within ASEAN appear to be adding another layer of distrust and competitiveness among its members who are then aligning even more with a diversity of external actors. This cycle of distrust and dysfunction does not bode well for ASEAN because its legitimacy within its own forums can be further eroded by its members and impact upon the organization's ability to exercise its plausible influence in the region. This new dimension to ASEAN's disunity also has longer-term implications for the autonomy of the Association and the region.