Meeting the ageing aircraft challenge

Abstract

"Meeting the ageing aircraft challenge" is not just about safety, not just about effectiveness, and not just about economy of support. It is about proactive and reactive optimization of all three service goals throughout long life cycles that span 20 or 30 years, or more, and typically, beyond the originally intended design life.

It is therefore about organizational attitudes towards ongoing trend analysis and condition monitoring, and pervading cost benefit assessments of all forms of human innovation across what the author describes as 'the eight sustaining disciplines for long aerospace life cycles', including scientific and technological developments, and opportunities for reliability growth or 'refresh'.

Complacency is the root cause of all problems with the design, maintenance and support of all modern infrastructure, and therefore life cycle planners and minders are required to be an enthusiastic but nervous lot - always hoping for the best, but planning for the worst impact of 'Mr Murphy'. Murphy thrives on complacency, is in bed with uncertainty, and never forgets (as we do often) that imperfection (no matter how small) breeds unreliability traps that patiently wait to surprise at some stage along the life cycle journey. He has the upper hand. ...Our best weapons against Murphy are continual, total picture and longer-term situational awareness; caution, vigilance, innovation and collaboration.

This research study and thesis is intended as a broad and comprehensive management philosophy, a guide and checklist - a broad scrape of everything 'so deep', rather than coverage of any one-niche aspect of the ageing aircraft challenge in great depth. It includes a brief and simple strategic setting for Australian Military Aerospace requirements, and spans a three axes management philosophy: 1. a toolbox of eight sustaining disciplines, 2. trend analysis and 3. time-cost-benefit assessment.

Along with complacency, the prime ageing aircraft 'killers' are identified, as are the key ageing aircraft 'age multipliers'. The eight sustaining disciplines are explained in varying depth, according to their broad significance to the ageing aircraft condition and life cycle. The ever-ubiquitous bathtub reliability curve - the key to understanding, predicting and controlling life cycle behaviour (including costs) - is emphasized.

Engineering life cycle minding and capability management are broad focus areas. The eight areas of attention identified for this broad study are:

1. Aerospace design requirements and trends, 2. Science and technology opportunities, 3. Airworthiness, engineering and maintenance philosophy, 4. Reliability behaviour, 5. Operational use and abuse patterns, 6. Logistics support and managing obsolescence, 7. Technical workforce and organizational attitudes (requirements and outlook), and 8. Life cycle costing and budgeting. This thesis primarily draws attention to the fundamental driver of life cycle behaviour - reliability. The critical dependency that life cycle control and prediction has on consistent and high quality trend data collection and analysis is emphasized throughout, and the now pressing need for better identification of ageing aircraft cost growth drivers, and their containment, is linked to reliability trend awareness, manipulation and intervention. The human dimension is included - including coverage of organizational attitudes and what it takes to be a 'high reliability organization'.

There are no magic or easy answers to the ageing aircraft condition and challenge. Trend analysis has to be done from the bottom up, system by system, for each fleet type. But over time, with consistent trend data collection, patterns emerge within the sophisticated and stochastic systems behaviour that that ageing aircraft play out. These patterns enable ongoing management of the long life cycle to be more confidently predicted, more assured and with best possible cost growth containment. The best, perhaps only, path to least surprises and best cost containment is now being re-identified in some military aviation organizations as a mature and evolving RAM engineering and RCM framework. RAM-RCM may well be the only recovery from what some admit is a death spiral of ageing aircraft cost growth.