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Abstract
China has undertaken a vast engineering project: the large-scale transfer of water from the south of the country to the north, the intention being to alleviate flooding in the south and water shortages in the north. It may take up to fifty years to complete. This thesis examines the broad outline of the scheme, the planning that has gone into it, its historical and political background, and the political, social, and ecological problems that it has encountered and may be likely to cause in the future. The political context of a 'pro-technology' policy amongst today's Chinese leaders is highlighted.
The Chinese study is made in the light of water-transfer schemes that have been implemented, or proposed, in other countries; and also ideas about sustainable development, policy processes, and natural resource management.
Five case studies are considered: the Aral Sea (Central Asia), the Snowy Mountain Scheme (Australia), the National Hydrological Plan (Spain), the Central Arizona Project (the United States) and the South-to-North Water Transfer Project (China). They are examined as a basis for understanding policy problems and processes in water resource management, and also to make some suggestions for their resolution in the Chinese case―though finding a permanent or definitive solution lies beyond the scope of the present inquiry.
The difficulties for traditional policy processes to manage uncertainty and complexity are particularly acute in the area of natural resource management. For example, climate change issues challenge present water management systems and diversion projects. Therefore, uncertainty and complexity issues, beyond the 'ideal' policy cycle, are considered, particularly in relation to climate change, but also the water diversion schemes themselves. Climate change presents a particularly important challenge to the Chinese Project.