Containing space warfare in the early decades of the twenty-first century

Abstract

This thesis was written to identify strategies for discouraging or containing warfare in the region of outer space. Accepting that the notion of warfare in outer space appears melodramatic, and noting previous research has been focused on the 20th century, Chapter 1 considers warfare across more than 12 millennia, identifying long-term trends and illustrating the manner in which those trends migrated into activities affecting the outer space region. Chapters 2 and 3 examine technological and related prerequisites for weapons to function in outer space, review the implications of launching radioactive payloads into Earth-centric orbits, disclose capacities to attack spacecraft using nuclear or kinetic weapons, and evaluate the destructive potential of directed energy weapons and other spacecraft-disabling technologies. Evolving defences available to spacecraft are identified. Chapter 4 examines the international law of warfare, particularly as it applies to outer space, revealing numerous inadequacies. The potential for the Antarctic region to serve as a template for a zone of peace is considered. Chapter 5 proposes a framework for analysing the motivations of nation States in conducting their external affairs. Formative influences and constraints leading to outer space policies adopted by spacefaring States are revealed. Chapter 6 identifies prominent strategies adopted by powerful spacefaring States with significant influence over the outer space region, then considers options open to other spacefaring and non-spacefaring States to either reduce the potential for warfare in outer space or, if warfare occurs in that region, to minimise its terrestrial consequences. Strategies and tactics with potential global appeal, aimed at promoting security in outer space, are also identified.

International law does not recognise the location of a boundary separating outer space from the dense terrestrial atmosphere. The thesis therefore includes argument leading to a scientifically and legally supportable boundary concept, proposing outer space begin at a linear altitude of 80 km above the datum Earth Gravitational Model 2008.

The final chapter includes a summary and epilogue.