Patterns and Determinants of Household Demand Growth for PV Systems: An International Study of the Early-stage Diffusion of a Renewable Energy Innovation

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Abstract
This research investigates the response of households to climate change through their investments in the renewable-energy technology, photovoltaic (PV) systems. Specifically, this thesis examines the determinants of household demand growth for PV systems in the early-stage technology diffusion process at international, national and local levels. Quantitative econometric, cross-sectional and time-series, regression analysis is used to examine the determinants of household demand for domestic PV systems in 21 countries in 2009, and patterns of demand growth in Australia and Germany from the early 1990s to 2010. Data were drawn mainly from the databases of the International Energy Agency Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme, World Bank, OECD, and Australian Bureau of Statistics. In-depth interviews were conducted with 21 households, owners and non-owners of PV systems. The households were located in Canberra, Australia’s capital, where the researcher lived and government policy was used to promote domestic PV system purchases. The international cross-sectional analysis found turn-key price had an inverse relationship to household demand; wealth per capita, GDP per capita, and feed-in tariffs had a positive influence on demand. Surprisingly, solar radiation levels and education were found to lack explanatory power. In the two-country time-series analysis, feed-in tariffs had a positive influence on household demand for PV systems. GDP per capita, household adjusted disposable income per capita and household net worth per capita were found to positively influence Australian household demand for PV systems; turn-key price was found to influence German household demand inversely, and electricity price was found to influence German household demand positively. In the household interviews, household concern about the environment, economic benefits and social interaction were reported as the major drivers for households adopting PV systems while price, transaction costs, equity and fairness issues were the major barriers to household PV adoption. In summary, household demand for PV systems is sensitive to turn-key price and electricity price, and price effects appear more powerful as markets mature. Government policy has been important in giving initial impetus to demand growth: feed-in tariffs especially, capital subsidies less so. If turn-key price continues to fall, policy stimulation will be less necessary in future.
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Author(s)
Meng, Zhaoxi
Supervisor(s)
Hall, Peter
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Publication Year
2013
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Thesis
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PhD Doctorate
UNSW Faculty
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