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Abstract
Every year, the Australian Defence Force (ADF) recruits over 4,900 ab initio sailors, soldiers, airmen and airwomen of whom approximately 31 percent separate prior to completion of their initial obligated period of service. This early separation of personnel, or first-term attrition, can represent a waste of training resources, and can increase the number of enlistments required each year to achieve the personnel requirements of the ADF. Therefore, an enhanced understanding of the pre-enlistment characteristics which predict whether a recruit will complete their first-term will allow the ADF to review recruiting and training policies so that the likelihood of first-term completion and the consequent return on investment can be improved.
A logit regression model was used to analyse the predictors of first-term completion of 11,372 ab initio sailors, soldiers, airmen and airwomen who enlisted over the period from 1 July 2002 to 30 June 2007. Data was omitted for personnel who would not have had the opportunity to complete their first-term by 1 July 2010. Although results varied between the Navy, Army and Air Force, evidence was found that several pre-enlistment characteristics predicted first-term completion. A low level of education, low ability score and low psychologist interview rating on enlistment all predicted reduced odds of first-term completion by recruits compared with those completing year 12 prior to enlistment or having at least an average ability score or psychologist interview rating. There was also evidence that a recruit's occupation predicted first-term attrition with those entering sea or land combat occupations exhibiting reduced first-term completion odds compared with those entering administration or logistics occupations.
There was insufficient evidence to support a hypothesis that sex predicted first-term completion. Additionally, characteristics such as country of birth/ethnicity, marital status and number of children exhibited either ambiguous results or the size of the relevant population was too small to influence the overall model outcomes.
This study, the first of its type to examine first-term attrition in the ADF, showed that there are characteristics from available data that predict first-term completion. As a result, the ADF will have additional information with which to review its policies, thereby minimising the waste of resources associated with recruiting and training personnel who do not complete their first-term. It is anticipated that future research will focus on specific predictors, expand the variables for analyses and examine attrition over different intervals of time.