Climate model dependence and the replicate Earth paradigm Bishop, C en_US Abramowitz, Gabriel en_US 2021-11-25T12:29:50Z 2021-11-25T12:29:50Z 2013 en_US
dc.description.abstract Multi-model ensembles are commonly used in climate prediction to create a set of independent estimates, and so better gauge the likelihood of particular outcomes and better quantify prediction uncertainty. Yet researchers share literature, datasets and model code-to what extent do different simulations constitute independent estimates? What is the relationship between model performance and independence? We show that error correlation provides a natural empirical basis for defining model dependence and derive a weighting strategy that accounts for dependence in experiments where the multi-model mean would otherwise be used. We introduce the "replicate Earth" ensemble interpretation framework, based on theoretically derived statistical relationships between ensembles of perfect models (replicate Earths) and observations. We transform an ensemble of (imperfect) climate projections into an ensemble whose mean and variance have the same statistical relationship to observations as an ensemble of replicate Earths. The approach can be used with multi-model ensembles that have varying numbers of simulations from different models, accounting for model dependence. We use HadCRUT3 data and the CMIP3 models to show that in out of sample tests, the transformed ensemble has an ensemble mean with significantly lower error and much flatter rank frequency histograms than the original ensemble. en_US
dc.identifier.issn 0930-7575 en_US
dc.language English
dc.language.iso EN en_US
dc.rights CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 en_US
dc.rights.uri en_US
dc.source Legacy MARC en_US
dc.title Climate model dependence and the replicate Earth paradigm en_US
dc.type Journal Article en
dcterms.accessRights open access
dspace.entity.type Publication en_US
unsw.description.publisherStatement The final publication is available at Springer via en_US
unsw.identifier.doiPublisher en_US
unsw.relation.FunderRefNo 4304-D-0-5 en_US
unsw.relation.faculty Science
unsw.relation.fundingScheme U.S. Office of Naval Research en_US
unsw.relation.ispartofissue 3-4 en_US
unsw.relation.ispartofjournal Climate Dynamics en_US
unsw.relation.ispartofpagefrompageto 885-900 en_US
unsw.relation.ispartofvolume 41 en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Bishop, C en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Abramowitz, Gabriel, Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC), Faculty of Science, UNSW en_US School of Biological, Earth & Environmental Sciences *
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