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Abstract
The Choice Modelling technique is an emerging technique which appears to have strengths relative to other non-market valuation techniques. The latter group are important in the assessment of the tradeoffs involved in environmental and resource use tradeoffs. However, the use of these techniques is often criticised where ethical and moral frameworks are involved, where it is unclear how difficult choices are being framed against each other, or where it is unclear how values change according to the scope of the amenity under consideration
The primary focus of the thesis is on the development of the Choice Modelling technique, which provides a richer information set to researchers than other techniques such as Contingent valuation method. However, the richness of this data is offset to some degree by the complexity of application, where careful attention is needed for design, application and analytical stages.
In this thesis, a series of four Choice Modelling experiments are reported, as well as two small Contingent Valuation experiments. The Choice Modelling experiments were centred on the estimation of values that Australians might hold for rainforest conservation in Vanuatu. In order to frame and scope the tradeoffs of interest within the broad pool of substitute goods (such as rainforest conservation opportunities in other countries), the Choice Modelling technique appeared more suitable than the single tradeoff preservation of the Contingent Valuation method.
The results of Choice Modelling experiments involved sets of parameters indicating that the probability of choice depended on a number of attributes used to make up the conservation profiles together with the influence of unobserved attributes. As a willingness-to-pay variable was included within the attributes making up choice profiles, estimates of value were available by predicting how changes in particular attributes could be offset by changes in the willingness-to-pay variable.
The major conclusions of the research presented in the thesis were that the involvement with ethical and moral frameworks does not invalidate the use of non-market valuation techniques, and that the Choice Modelling technique has strengths in relation to scooping and framing issues. In particular, the research demonstrates that the information generated from an experiment can be used in an iterative approach to develop more accurate models of choice. As well, the research shows that the amenity of interest, rainforest conservation in Vanuatu, can have positive values for Australian residents relative to other conservation opportunities.