Climate Drift in the CMIP5 Models Sen Gupta, Alexander en_US Jourdain, Nicolas en_US Brown, Jaclyn N. en_US Monselesan, Didier en_US 2021-11-25T12:29:45Z 2021-11-25T12:29:45Z 2013 en_US
dc.description.abstract Climate models often exhibit spurious long-term changes independent of either internal variability or changes to external forcing. Such changes, referred to as model drift, may distort the estimate of forced change in transient climate simulations. The importance of drift is examined in comparison to historical trends over recent decades in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Comparison based on a selection of metrics suggests a significant overall reduction in the magnitude of drift from phase 3 of CMIP (CMIP3) to phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5). The direction of both ocean and atmospheric drift is systematically biased in some models introducing statistically significant drift in globally averaged metrics. Nevertheless, for most models globally averaged drift remains weak compared to the associated forced trends and is often smaller than the difference between trends derived from different ensemble members or the error introduced by the aliasing of natural variability. An exception to this is metrics that include the deep ocean (e.g., steric sea level) where drift can dominate in forced simulations. In such circumstances drift must be corrected for using information from concurrent control experiments. Many CMIP5 models now include ocean biogeochemistry. Like physical models, biogeochemical models generally undergo long spinup integrations to minimize drift. Nevertheless, based on a limited subset of models, it is found that drift is an important consideration and must be accounted for. For properties or regions where drift is important, the drift correction method must be carefully considered. The use of a drift estimate based on the full control time series is recommended to minimize the contamination of the drift estimate by internal variability. en_US
dc.identifier.issn 0894-8755 en_US
dc.language English
dc.language.iso EN en_US
dc.rights CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 en_US
dc.rights.uri en_US
dc.source Legacy MARC en_US
dc.title Climate Drift in the CMIP5 Models en_US
dc.type Journal Article en
dcterms.accessRights open access
dspace.entity.type Publication en_US
unsw.description.publisherStatement © Copyright (2013) American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act September 2010 Page 2 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a web site or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy, available on the AMS Web site located at ( or from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or en_US
unsw.identifier.doiPublisher en_US
unsw.relation.faculty Science
unsw.relation.ispartofissue 21 en_US
unsw.relation.ispartofjournal Journal of Climate en_US
unsw.relation.ispartofpagefrompageto 8597-8615 en_US
unsw.relation.ispartofvolume 26 en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Sen Gupta, Alexander, Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC), Faculty of Science, UNSW en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Jourdain, Nicolas, Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC), Faculty of Science, UNSW en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Brown, Jaclyn N., CSIRO Wealth from Oceans National Research Flagship en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Monselesan, Didier, CSIRO Wealth from Oceans National Research Flagship en_US School of Biological, Earth & Environmental Sciences *
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