Publication:
Global increasing trends in annual maximum daily precipitation

dc.contributor.author Westra, S en_US
dc.contributor.author Alexander, Lisa en_US
dc.contributor.author Zwiers, F en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2021-11-25T12:29:48Z
dc.date.available 2021-11-25T12:29:48Z
dc.date.issued 2013 en_US
dc.description.abstract This study investigates the presence of trends in annual maximum daily precipitation time series obtained from a global dataset of 8326 high-quality land-based observing stations with more than 30 years of record over the period from 1900 to 2009. Two complementary statistical techniques were adopted to evaluate the possible nonstationary behavior of these precipitation data. The first was a Mann-Kendall nonparametric trend test, and it was used to evaluate the existence of monotonic trends. The second was a nonstationary generalized extreme value analysis, and it was used to determine the strength of association between the precipitation extremes and globally averaged near-surface temperature. The outcomes are that statistically significant increasing trends can be detected at the global scale, with close to two-thirds of stations showing increases. Furthermore, there is a statistically significant association with globally averaged near-surface temperature, with the median intensity of extreme precipitation changing in proportion with changes in global mean temperature at a rate of between 5.9% and 7.7% K-1, depending on the method of analysis. This ratio was robust irrespective of record length or time period considered and was not strongly biased by the uneven global coverage of precipitation data. Finally, there is a distinct meridional variation, with the greatest sensitivity occurring in the tropics and higher latitudes and the minima around 13 degrees S and 11 degrees N. The greatest uncertainty was near the equator because of the limited number of sufficiently long precipitation records, and there remains an urgent need to improve data collection in this region to better constrain future changes in tropical precipitation. en_US
dc.identifier.issn 0894-8755 en_US
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/1959.4/53686
dc.language English
dc.language.iso EN en_US
dc.rights CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 en_US
dc.rights.uri https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/au/ en_US
dc.source Legacy MARC en_US
dc.title Global increasing trends in annual maximum daily precipitation en_US
dc.type Journal Article en
dcterms.accessRights open access
dspace.entity.type Publication en_US
unsw.accessRights.uri https://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
unsw.description.publisherStatement © Copyright (2013) American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act September 2010 Page 2 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a web site or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy, available on the AMS Web site located at (http://www.ametsoc.org/) or from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or copyrights@ametsoc.org. en_US
unsw.identifier.doiPublisher http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00502.1 en_US
unsw.relation.faculty Science
unsw.relation.ispartofissue 11 en_US
unsw.relation.ispartofjournal Journal of Climate en_US
unsw.relation.ispartofpagefrompageto 3904-3918 en_US
unsw.relation.ispartofvolume 26 en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Westra, S en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Alexander, Lisa, Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC), Faculty of Science, UNSW en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Zwiers, F en_US
unsw.relation.school School of Biological, Earth & Environmental Sciences *
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