Publication:
The impact of seasonal variability in wildlife populations on the predicted spread of foot and mouth disease

dc.contributor.author Highfield, Linda D en_US
dc.contributor.author Ward, Michael P en_US
dc.contributor.author Laffan, Shawn en_US
dc.contributor.author Norby, Bo en_US
dc.contributor.author Wagner, Gale G en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2021-11-25T13:13:38Z
dc.date.available 2021-11-25T13:13:38Z
dc.date.issued 2009 en_US
dc.description.abstract Modeling potential disease spread in wildlife populations is important for predicting, responding to and recovering from a foreign animal disease incursion such as foot and mouth disease (FMD). We conducted a series of simulation experiments to determine how seasonal estimates of the spatial distribution of white-tailed deer impact the predicted magnitude and distribution of potential FMD outbreaks. Outbreaks were simulated in a study area comprising 2 distinct ecoregions in south Texas, USA, using a susceptible-latent-infectious-resistant geographic automata model (Sirca). Seasonal deer distributions were estimated by spatial autoregressive lag models and the normalized difference vegetative index. Significant (P < 0.0001) differences in both the median predicted number of deer infected and number of herds infected were found both between seasons and between ecoregions. Larger outbreaks occurred in winter within the higher deer-density ecoregion, whereas larger outbreaks occurred in summer and fall within the lower deer-density ecoregion. Results of this simulation study suggest that the outcome of an FMD incursion in a population of wildlife would depend on the density of the population infected and when during the year the incursion occurs. It is likely that such effects would be seen for FMD incursions in other regions and countries, and for other diseases, in cases in which a potential wildlife reservoir exists. Study findings indicate that the design of a mitigation strategy needs to take into account population and seasonal characteristics. en_US
dc.identifier.issn 0928-4249 en_US
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/1959.4/39402
dc.language English
dc.language.iso EN en_US
dc.rights CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 en_US
dc.rights.uri https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/au/ en_US
dc.source Legacy MARC en_US
dc.subject.other GIS en_US
dc.subject.other Veterinary epidemiology en_US
dc.subject.other geographic automata en_US
dc.subject.other spatial modelling en_US
dc.subject.other foot and mouth disease en_US
dc.subject.other wildlife en_US
dc.title The impact of seasonal variability in wildlife populations on the predicted spread of foot and mouth disease en_US
dc.type Journal Article en
dcterms.accessRights open access
dspace.entity.type Publication en_US
unsw.accessRights.uri https://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
unsw.description.publisherStatement © INRA, EDP Sciences 2009. The original publication is available at www.vetres.org en_US
unsw.identifier.doiPublisher http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/vetres:2009001 en_US
unsw.relation.faculty Science
unsw.relation.ispartofjournal Veterinary Research en_US
unsw.relation.ispartofvolume 40:18 en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Highfield, Linda D en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Ward, Michael P en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Laffan, Shawn, Biological, Earth & Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science, UNSW en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Norby, Bo en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Wagner, Gale G en_US
unsw.relation.school School of Biological, Earth & Environmental Sciences *
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