Systems-Based Targeting

Abstract

This thesis argues that the effectiveness of the targeting process used by the Royal Australian Air Force is presently limited by a lack of clear systems thinking about the adversary. The thesis examines the evolution of air power targeting theory through a systems thinking lens and identifies gaps in the way that adversaries have been thought about in past conflicts. The gaps centre on the role that feedback loops play in enabling antifragility in complex warfighting systems, and how interventions through feedback loops can influence system adaptation. Given difficulties with studying real-world adversaries, the thesis utilises analogous reasoning to explore how structurally similar systems can be understood and interventions planned to change system performance. A high consequence / highly competitive system typology is established to allow for the selection of two structurally analogous systems: an aviation safety system and an elite sports team system. Qualitative interview data is collected on these systems and analysed to create Causal Loop Diagrams through which feedback loops are identified. The diagrams are quantified through network analysis, which isolates the most impactful nodes for intervention. The planned interventions are then bundled and graphically represented. Five key findings are presented. Firstly, systems thinking is more effective than analytic thinking in allowing an understanding of contemporary warfighting systems to be developed; it better accounts for system complexity, adaptation and emergence. Secondly, understanding adaptation processes within adversary systems is essential to targeting them effectively; open, social systems are most likely to present an antifragile, adaptive response to being targeted. Thirdly, feedback loops play a critical role in enabling antifragility within systems. Fourthly, intervening in feedback loops through non-emergent nodes provides an effective way to influence system adaptation. Finally, the research presented Causal Loop Diagrams, quantification of those diagrams through network analysis, as well as graphical intervention mapping as methodological innovations to be considered for incorporation into a systems-based targeting process. These elements of a systems-based targeting approach represent the clearer thinking about adversary systems that would ensure that the best targets are selected for the Air Force to strike.