Publication:
Modeling trends in HIV incidence among homosexual men in Australia 1995-2006

dc.contributor.author Clements, Mark en_US
dc.contributor.author Prestage, Garrett en_US
dc.contributor.author Grulich, Andrew en_US
dc.contributor.author Van De Ven, Paul en_US
dc.contributor.author Kippax, Susan en_US
dc.contributor.author Law, Matthew en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2021-11-25T14:58:23Z
dc.date.available 2021-11-25T14:58:23Z
dc.date.issued 2004 en_US
dc.description.abstract Background: Previous mathematical models have indicated that any decrease in HIV incidence in homosexual men due to decreased infectiousness from antiretroviral treatment (ARV) may be offset by modest increases in unsafe sex. The aims of this study were to assess the effects of ARV use and increasing unprotected anal intercourse with casual partners (UAIC) in homosexual men on HIV incidence during 1995-2001 and to project HIV incidence depending on trends in ARV use and UAIC. Methods: A mathematical model of HIV transmission among homosexual men in Australia was developed. HIV incidence during 1995-2001 was estimated assuming that 70% of men in whom HIV was diagnosed received ARVs and assuming a 10% annual increase in UAIC. For 2001-2006, scenarios included ARV levels remaining at 70% or declining to 50% by 2006, combined with UAIC levels remaining at the 2001 level or continuing to increase annually by 10%. Findings: The number of incident HIV cases per year was predicted to have declined during 1996-1998 due to the introduction of effective ARVs, with a slow increase during 1998-2001 due to increased levels of UAIC when use of therapies was fairly stable. From 2001, a continued increase in UAIC was predicted to lead to a rise in HIV incidence. A rise in UAIC combined with a moderate decline in ARV use could lead to a 50% increase in HIV incidence by 2006. Interpretation: These models suggest that widespread ARV use has had some effect in reducing HIV incidence among homosexual men in Australia. However, if current trends in UAIC and ARV use continue, a resurgent HIV epidemic is predicted. en_US
dc.identifier.issn 1525-4135 en_US
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/1959.4/44036
dc.language English
dc.language.iso EN en_US
dc.rights CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 en_US
dc.rights.uri https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/au/ en_US
dc.source Legacy MARC en_US
dc.subject.other antiretroviral therapy en_US
dc.subject.other HIV incidence en_US
dc.subject.other homosexual men en_US
dc.subject.other mathematical models en_US
dc.subject.other sexual behavior en_US
dc.title Modeling trends in HIV incidence among homosexual men in Australia 1995-2006 en_US
dc.type Journal Article en
dcterms.accessRights metadata only access
dspace.entity.type Publication en_US
unsw.accessRights.uri http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_14cb
unsw.relation.faculty Medicine & Health
unsw.relation.faculty Arts Design & Architecture
unsw.relation.ispartofissue 4 en_US
unsw.relation.ispartofjournal JAIDS: Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes en_US
unsw.relation.ispartofpagefrompageto 401-406 en_US
unsw.relation.ispartofvolume 35 en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Clements, Mark, National Centre in HIV Epidemiology & Clinical Research, Faculty of Medicine, UNSW en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Prestage, Garrett, National Centre in HIV Epidemiology & Clinical Research, Faculty of Medicine, UNSW en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Grulich, Andrew, National Centre in HIV Epidemiology & Clinical Research, Faculty of Medicine, UNSW en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Van De Ven, Paul, National Centre in HIV Social Research, Faculty of Arts & Social Sciences, UNSW en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Kippax, Susan, National Centre in HIV Social Research, Faculty of Arts & Social Sciences, UNSW en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Law, Matthew, National Centre in HIV Epidemiology & Clinical Research, Faculty of Medicine, UNSW en_US
unsw.relation.school The Kirby Institute *
unsw.relation.school Centre for Social Research in Health *
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