Implications of CMIP3 model biases and uncertainties for climate projections in the western tropical Pacific Brown, JN en_US Sen Gupta, Alexander en_US Brown, JR en_US Muir, L en_US Risbey, J en_US Whetton, P en_US Zhang, X en_US Ganachaud, A en_US Murphy, B en_US Wijffels, S en_US 2021-11-25T12:30:28Z 2021-11-25T12:30:28Z 2013 en_US
dc.description.abstract Regional climate projections in the Pacific region are potentially sensitive to a range of existing model biases. This study examines the implications of coupled model biases on regional climate projections in the tropical western Pacific. Model biases appear in the simulation of the El Nino Southern Oscillation, the location and movement of the South Pacific Convergence Zone, rainfall patterns, and the mean state of the ocean-atmosphere system including the cold tongue bias and erroneous location of the edge of the Western Pacific warm pool. These biases are examined in the CMIP3 20th century climate models and used to provide some context to the uncertainty in interpretations of regional-scale climate projections for the 21st century. To demonstrate, we provide examples for two island nations that are located in different climate zones and so are affected by different biases: Nauru and Palau. We discuss some of the common approaches to analyze climate projections and whether they are effective in reducing the effect of model biases. These approaches include model selection, calculating multi model means, downscaling and bias correcting. en_US
dc.identifier.issn 0165-0009 en_US
dc.language English
dc.language.iso EN en_US
dc.rights CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 en_US
dc.rights.uri en_US
dc.source Legacy MARC en_US
dc.title Implications of CMIP3 model biases and uncertainties for climate projections in the western tropical Pacific en_US
dc.type Journal Article en
dcterms.accessRights open access
dspace.entity.type Publication en_US
unsw.description.publisherStatement The final publication is available at Springer via en_US
unsw.identifier.doiPublisher en_US
unsw.relation.faculty Science
unsw.relation.fundingScheme PACCSAP, AusAID, DCCEE en_US
unsw.relation.ispartofissue 1 en_US
unsw.relation.ispartofjournal Climatic Change en_US
unsw.relation.ispartofpagefrompageto 147-161 en_US
unsw.relation.ispartofvolume 119 en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Brown, JN en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Sen Gupta, Alexander, Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC), Faculty of Science, UNSW en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Brown, JR en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Muir, L en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Risbey, J en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Whetton, P en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Zhang, X en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Ganachaud, A en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Murphy, B en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Wijffels, S en_US School of Biological, Earth & Environmental Sciences *
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