Military revolution: preparing the Australian army for the fourth industrial revolution

Abstract

A handful of technologies have had a profound influence on the course of human history. The most influential have transformed society by recasting the social, political, economic and military norms of the age. Another transformation is presently underway, driven by the influence of computation, artificial intelligence, biotechnologies and nanotechnologies behaving as General Purpose Technologies. This change constitutes a Fourth Industrial Revolution with enduring consequences for all aspects of modern society.

Anticipating transformational change is a prerequisite for adequate preparation. The Australian Army is preparing for an increasingly uncertain future in which emerging technologies, domain fusion and accelerating rates of change will produce disruptive discontinuities in military power. While the Army is aware of the magnitude of change it faces, it remains poorly positioned to adapt, let alone thrive. The Australian Army needs to prepare for a future where successive waves of technology influence society. This influence will change societal expectations governing how military power is applied, while concurrently disrupting the methods available to apply military force.

This study assesses organisational adaption to these change pressures through the lens of military transformation theory. Military Revolutions theory describes transformational societal conditions alongside the potential for one or many Revolutions in Military Affairs to profoundly influence military power. The Australian Army is not prepared for either, preferring traditional approaches to modernisation that replace existing equipment with expensive upgrades. This approach to modernisation is conservative, avoiding the risk of uncertain conditions, but in doing so sets the conditions for a future crisis.

The Australian Army can adequately prepare for the conditions ahead, but it must be willing to challenge long held beliefs. Balancing sustaining and disruptive forms of innovation is key to competitiveness in the present and future. New structures and a culture that supports all forms of innovation will allow the Army to thrive in the design competition which will characterise military preparedness in the Fourth Industrial Age.