Projected changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean of importance to tuna fisheries Ganachaud, A en_US Sen Gupta, Alexander en_US Brown, J en_US Evans, K en_US Maes, C en_US Muir, L en_US Graham, F en_US 2021-11-25T12:30:26Z 2021-11-25T12:30:26Z 2013 en_US
dc.description.abstract Future physical and chemical changes to the ocean are likely to significantly affect the distribution and productivity of many marine species. Tuna are of particular importance in the tropical Pacific, as they contribute significantly to the livelihoods, food and economic security of island states. Changes in water properties and circulation will impact on tuna larval dispersal, preferred habitat distributions and the trophic systems that support tuna populations throughout the region. Using recent observations and ocean projections from the CMIP3 and preliminary results from CMIP5 climate models, we document the projected changes to ocean temperature, salinity, stratification and circulation most relevant to distributions of tuna. Under a business-as-usual emission scenario, projections indicate a surface intensified warming in the upper 400 m and a large expansion of the western Pacific Warm Pool, with most surface waters of the central and western equatorial Pacific reaching temperatures warmer than 29 degrees C by 2100. These changes are likely to alter the preferred habitat of tuna, based on present-day thermal tolerances, and in turn the distribution of spawning and foraging grounds. Large-scale shoaling of the mixed layer and increases in stratification are expected to impact nutrient provision to the biologically active layer, with flow-on trophic effects on the micronekton. Several oceanic currents are projected to change, including a strengthened upper equatorial undercurrent, which could modify the supply of bioavailable iron to the eastern Pacific. en_US
dc.identifier.issn 0165-0009 en_US
dc.language English
dc.language.iso EN en_US
dc.rights CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 en_US
dc.rights.uri en_US
dc.source Legacy MARC en_US
dc.title Projected changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean of importance to tuna fisheries en_US
dc.type Journal Article en
dcterms.accessRights open access
dspace.entity.type Publication en_US
unsw.description.publisherStatement The final publication is available at Springer via en_US
unsw.identifier.doiPublisher en_US
unsw.relation.FunderRefNo ANR-09-BLAN-0233-01 en_US
unsw.relation.faculty Science
unsw.relation.fundingScheme ANR, PACCSAP, AusAID en_US
unsw.relation.ispartofissue 1 en_US
unsw.relation.ispartofjournal Climatic Change en_US
unsw.relation.ispartofpagefrompageto 163-179 en_US
unsw.relation.ispartofvolume 119 en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Ganachaud, A en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Sen Gupta, Alexander, Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC), Faculty of Science, UNSW en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Brown, J en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Evans, K en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Maes, C en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Muir, L en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Graham, F en_US School of Biological, Earth & Environmental Sciences *
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