Separating Forced from Chaotic Climate Variability over the Past Millennium Schurer, A en_US Hegerl, G en_US Mann, M en_US Tett, S en_US Phipps, Steven en_US 2021-11-25T12:29:43Z 2021-11-25T12:29:43Z 2013 en_US
dc.description.abstract Reconstructions of past climate show notable temperature variability over the past millennium, with relatively warm conditions during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and a relatively cold Little Ice Age (LIA). Multimodel simulations of the past millennium are used together with a wide range of reconstructions of Northern Hemispheric mean annual temperature to separate climate variability from 850 to 1950 CE into components attributable to external forcing and internal climate variability. External forcing is found to contribute significantly to long-term temperature variations irrespective of the proxy reconstruction, particularly from 1400 onward. Over the MCA alone, however, the effect of forcing is only detectable in about half of the reconstructions considered, and the response to forcing in the models cannot explain the warm conditions around 1000 CE seen in some reconstructions. The residual from the detection analysis is used to estimate internal variability independent from climate modeling, and it is found that the recent observed 50- and 100-yr hemispheric temperature trends are substantially larger than any of the internally generated trends even using the large residuals over the MCA. Variations in solar output and explosive volcanism are found to be the main drivers of climate change from 1400 to 1900, but for the first time a significant contribution from greenhouse gas variations to the cold conditions during 1600-1800 is also detected. The proxy reconstructions tend to show a smaller forced response than is simulated by the models. This discrepancy is shown, at least partly, to be likely associated with the difference in the response to large volcanic eruptions between reconstructions and model simulations. en_US
dc.identifier.issn 0894-8755 en_US
dc.language English
dc.language.iso EN en_US
dc.rights CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 en_US
dc.rights.uri en_US
dc.source Legacy MARC en_US
dc.title Separating Forced from Chaotic Climate Variability over the Past Millennium en_US
dc.type Journal Article en
dcterms.accessRights open access
dspace.entity.type Publication en_US
unsw.description.publisherStatement © Copyright (2013) American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act September 2010 Page 2 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a web site or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy, available on the AMS Web site located at ( or from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or en_US
unsw.identifier.doiPublisher en_US
unsw.relation.faculty Science
unsw.relation.ispartofissue 18 en_US
unsw.relation.ispartofjournal Journal of Climate en_US
unsw.relation.ispartofpagefrompageto 6954-6973 en_US
unsw.relation.ispartofvolume 26 en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Schurer, A en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Hegerl, G en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Mann, M en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Tett, S en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Phipps, Steven, Faculty of Science, UNSW en_US
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