Publication:
Simulating the spatial dynamics of foot and mouth disease outbreaks in feral pigs and livestock in Queensland, Australia, using a susceptible-infected-recovered cellular automata model

dc.contributor.author Doran, R en_US
dc.contributor.author Laffan, Shawn en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2021-11-25T13:09:43Z
dc.date.available 2021-11-25T13:09:43Z
dc.date.issued 2005 en_US
dc.description.abstract We describe an approach to modelling the spatio-temporal spread of foot and mouth disease through feral animal and unfenced livestock populations. We used a susceptible-infected-recovered model, implemented in a cellular automata framework, to assess the spread of FMD across two regions of Queensland, Australia. Following a sensitivity analysis on the infectious states, scenario analyses were conducted using feral pigs only as the susceptible population, and then with the addition of livestock, and initiated in the wet season and in the dry season. The results indicate that, depending on the season the outbreak is initiated, and without the implementation of control measures, an outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease around Winton could continue unchecked, while an outbreak around Cape York may die out naturally. The approach explicitly incorporates the spatial relationships between the populations through which the disease spreads and provides a framework by which the spread of disease outbreaks can be explored through varying the model parameters. It highlights the emergence and importance of spatio-temporal patterns, something that previous modelling of FMD in feral animal and unfenced livestock populations has lacked. en_US
dc.identifier.issn 0167-5877 en_US
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/1959.4/39296
dc.language English
dc.language.iso EN en_US
dc.rights CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 en_US
dc.rights.uri https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/au/ en_US
dc.source Legacy MARC en_US
dc.title Simulating the spatial dynamics of foot and mouth disease outbreaks in feral pigs and livestock in Queensland, Australia, using a susceptible-infected-recovered cellular automata model en_US
dc.type Journal Article en
dcterms.accessRights metadata only access
dspace.entity.type Publication en_US
unsw.accessRights.uri http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_14cb
unsw.identifier.doiPublisher http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.prevetmed.2005.03.002 en_US
unsw.relation.faculty Science
unsw.relation.ispartofissue 1-2 en_US
unsw.relation.ispartofjournal Preventive Veterinary Medicine en_US
unsw.relation.ispartofpagefrompageto 133-152 en_US
unsw.relation.ispartofvolume 70 en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Doran, R en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Laffan, Shawn, Biological, Earth & Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science, UNSW en_US
unsw.relation.school School of Biological, Earth & Environmental Sciences *
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