Nonstationary Australasian Teleconnections and Implications for Paleoclimate Reconstructions Gallant, Ailie J.E. en_US Phipps, Steven en_US Karoly, David J. en_US Mullan, A. Brett en_US Lorrey, Andrew M. en_US 2021-11-25T12:29:02Z 2021-11-25T12:29:02Z 2013 en_US
dc.description.abstract The stationarity of relationships between local and remote climates is a necessary, yet implicit, assumption underlying many paleoclimate reconstructions. However, the assumption is tenuous for many seasonal relationships between interannual variations in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the southern annular mode (SAM) and Australasian precipitation and mean temperatures. Nonstationary statistical relationships between local and remote climates on the 31-71-yr time scale, defined as a change in their strength and/or phase outside that expected from local climate noise, are detected on near-centennial time scales from instrumental data, climate model simulations, and paleoclimate proxies.The relationships between ENSO and SAM and Australasian precipitation were nonstationary at 21%-37% of Australasian stations from 1900 to 2009 and strongly covaried, suggesting common modulation. Control simulations from three coupled climate models produce ENSO-like and SAM-like patterns of variability, but differ in detail to the observed patterns in Australasia. However, the model teleconnections also display nonstationarity, in some cases for over 50% of the domain. Therefore, nonstationary local-remote climatic relationships are inherent in environments regulated by internal variability. The assessments using paleoclimate reconstructions are not robust because of extraneous noise associated with the paleoclimate proxies.Instrumental records provide the only means of calibrating and evaluating regional paleoclimate reconstructions. However, the length of Australasian instrumental observations may be too short to capture the near-centennial-scale variations in local-remote climatic relationships, potentially compromising these reconstructions. The uncertainty surrounding nonstationary teleconnections must be acknowledged and quantified. This should include interpreting nonstationarities in paleoclimate reconstructions using physically based frameworks. en_US
dc.identifier.issn 0894-8755 en_US
dc.language English
dc.language.iso EN en_US
dc.rights CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 en_US
dc.rights.uri en_US
dc.source Legacy MARC en_US
dc.title Nonstationary Australasian Teleconnections and Implications for Paleoclimate Reconstructions en_US
dc.type Journal Article en
dcterms.accessRights open access
dspace.entity.type Publication en_US
unsw.description.publisherStatement © Copyright 2013 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act September 2010 Page 2 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a web site or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy, available on the AMS Web site located at ( or from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or en_US
unsw.identifier.doiPublisher en_US
unsw.relation.faculty Science
unsw.relation.ispartofissue 22 en_US
unsw.relation.ispartofjournal Journal of Climate en_US
unsw.relation.ispartofpagefrompageto 8827-8849 en_US
unsw.relation.ispartofvolume 26 en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Gallant, Ailie J.E. en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Phipps, Steven, Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC), Faculty of Science, UNSW en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Karoly, David J. en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Mullan, A. Brett en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Lorrey, Andrew M. en_US School of Biological, Earth & Environmental Sciences *
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