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Multidecadal ENSO Amplitude Variability in a 1000-yr Simulation of a Coupled Global Climate Model: Implications for Observed ENSO Variability
Multidecadal ENSO Amplitude Variability in a 1000-yr Simulation of a Coupled Global Climate Model: Implications for Observed ENSO Variability
dc.contributor.author | Borlace, S | en_US |
dc.contributor.author | Cai, W | en_US |
dc.contributor.author | Santoso, Agus | en_US |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-11-25T12:29:51Z | |
dc.date.available | 2021-11-25T12:29:51Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2013 | en_US |
dc.description.abstract | The amplitude of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can vary naturally over multidecadal time scales and can be influenced by climate change. However, determining the mechanism for this variation is difficult because of the paucity of observations over such long time scales. Using a 1000-yr integration of a coupled global climate model and a linear stability analysis, it is demonstrated that multidecadal modulation of ENSO amplitude can be driven by variations in the governing dynamics. In this model, the modulation is controlled by the underlying thermocline feedback mechanism, which in turn is governed by the response of the oceanic thermocline slope across the equatorial Pacific to changes in the overlying basinwide zonal winds. Furthermore, the episodic strengthening and weakening of this coupled interaction is shown to be linked to the slowly varying background climate. In comparison with the model statistics, the recent change of ENSO amplitude in observations appears to be still within the range of natural variability. This is despite the apparent warming trend in the mean climate. Hence, this study suggests that it may be difficult to infer a climate change signal from changes in ENSO amplitude alone, particularly given the presently limited observational data. | en_US |
dc.identifier.issn | 0894-8755 | en_US |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/1959.4/53691 | |
dc.language | English | |
dc.language.iso | EN | en_US |
dc.rights | CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 | en_US |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/au/ | en_US |
dc.source | Legacy MARC | en_US |
dc.title | Multidecadal ENSO Amplitude Variability in a 1000-yr Simulation of a Coupled Global Climate Model: Implications for Observed ENSO Variability | en_US |
dc.type | Journal Article | en |
dcterms.accessRights | open access | |
dspace.entity.type | Publication | en_US |
unsw.accessRights.uri | https://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 | |
unsw.description.publisherStatement | © Copyright (2013) American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act September 2010 Page 2 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a web site or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy, available on the AMS Web site located at (http://www.ametsoc.org/) or from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or copyrights@ametsoc.org. | en_US |
unsw.identifier.doiPublisher | http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00281.1 | en_US |
unsw.relation.FunderRefNo | CE110001028 | en_US |
unsw.relation.FunderRefNoURL | http://purl.org/au-research/grants/nhmrc/CE110001028 | en_US |
unsw.relation.faculty | Science | |
unsw.relation.fundingScheme | ARC Discovery | en_US |
unsw.relation.ispartofissue | 23 | en_US |
unsw.relation.ispartofjournal | Journal of Climate | en_US |
unsw.relation.ispartofpagefrompageto | 9399-9407 | en_US |
unsw.relation.ispartofvolume | 26 | en_US |
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation | Borlace, S | en_US |
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation | Cai, W | en_US |
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation | Santoso, Agus, Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC), Faculty of Science, UNSW | en_US |
unsw.relation.school | School of Biological, Earth & Environmental Sciences | * |
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