The usefulness of different realizations for the model evaluation of regional trends in heat waves Perkins, Sarah en_US Fischer, E en_US 2021-11-25T12:30:22Z 2021-11-25T12:30:22Z 2013 en_US
dc.description.abstract The evaluation of a climate model's capability to simulate trends in extreme events is not straightforward. This is due to the role of internal climate variability, the simulated phases of which are unique to each individual model realization. We undertake an assessment of the 21-member Community Earth System Model (CESM) on the basis of its ability to simulate heat wave days frequency over Australia. We employ the extreme heat factor definition to measure heat waves and study events for all summers (November-March) between 1950 and 2005. The spatial pattern, magnitude, and significance of trends in CESM were found to be reasonable since the corresponding observed trends were within the CESM ensemble range. There is a suggestion that the model produces higher interannual variability than what is observed. The trends between realizations of the same model differ strongly, which suggest that internal climate variability can strongly amplify or mask local trends in extreme events. en_US
dc.identifier.issn 0094-8276 en_US
dc.language English
dc.language.iso EN en_US
dc.rights CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 en_US
dc.rights.uri en_US
dc.source Legacy MARC en_US
dc.title The usefulness of different realizations for the model evaluation of regional trends in heat waves en_US
dc.type Journal Article en
dcterms.accessRights open access
dspace.entity.type Publication en_US
unsw.description.publisherStatement Copyright (2013) American Geophysical Union. Published version available at: en_US
unsw.identifier.doiPublisher en_US
unsw.relation.faculty Science
unsw.relation.ispartofissue 21 en_US
unsw.relation.ispartofjournal Geophysical Research Letters en_US
unsw.relation.ispartofpagefrompageto 5793-5797 en_US
unsw.relation.ispartofvolume 40 en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Perkins, Sarah, Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC), Faculty of Science, UNSW en_US
unsw.relation.originalPublicationAffiliation Fischer, E en_US School of Biological, Earth & Environmental Sciences *
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