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(1996)Conference PaperAn analytical model is developed to decribe recombination currents arising from recombination at grain boundaries (GBs) in the depletion region of a p-n junction solar cell. Grain boundaries are modelled as having a single energy evel in the energy gap, and partial occupancy of these stats gives raise to a chage on the GB. The analytical model is compared to a complete numerical simulation package (DESSIS) and found to be in excellent agreement. Additionally,. cross sectional EBIC images of a multilayer device containing vertical GBs are presented. The experimental data is comared qualitatively with results derived from numerical modelling.
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(1996)Journal ArticleThe passivated emitter, rear locally diffused (PERL) cells, fabricated in our laboratory, reach an efficiency of 24.0%, the highest value for any silicon-based solar cell under terrestrial illumination. In an attempt to improve the rear surface passivation, which is usually obtained by a thermally grown oxide, we add a floating (i.e., noncontacted) p-n junction at the rear surface, resulting in the passivated emitter, rear floating p-n junction (PERF) cell design. Although these cells exhibit record 1-sun open-circuit voltages of up to 720 mV, their efficiency is degraded by nonlinearities ("shoulders") in the logarithmic I-V curves. In order to understand and manipulate such nonlinearities, this paper presents a detailed investigation of the internal operation of PERF cells by means of numerical modelling based on experimentally determined device parameters. From the model, we derive design rules for optimum cell performance and develop a generalized argumentation that is suitable to compare the passivation properties of different surface structures. For example, the oxidized rear surface of the PERL cell is treated as an electrostatically induced floating junction in this approach and analogies to the diffused floating p-n junction are drawn. Our simulations indicate that optimum rear surface passivation can be obtained in three different ways. (i) The floating junction of the PERF cell should be very lightly doped, resulting in a sheet resistivity of 5000 Omega/[D'Alembertian], and losses due to shunt leaking paths between the p-n junction and the rear metal contacts must be avoided. (ii) The rear surface of the PERL cell should be passivated by chemical vapor deposition of a silicon nitride film containing a larger positive interface charge density than exists in thermally grown oxides. (iii) An external gate can be added at the rear with low leakage currents and gate voltages of around 15 V.
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(2007)Journal ArticleSimulation models are important for investigating foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) introduction scenarios and testing the potential effectiveness of control programs. To incorporate disease spread via domestic livestock and wildlife populations, a multi-model approach has been used to simulate potential FMD outbreaks in a region of Texas. Within the study region - a 9-county area (24,525 sq.km) of southern Texas, bordering Mexico - the distribution of cattle and feral pigs was estimated based on land use and vegetation characteristics. A geographic automata model of FMD spread between feral pig herds (1 km2 grid) was used to initiate the outbreak. During each simulated day of spread, we identified cattle herds (represented as either points or polygons) that may have been infected. We then used, separately, two spread models of FMD in domestic species to simulate an FMD outbreak in cattle herds in the study region. Initial simulations of this multi-model system based on introduction of infection into five randomly selected feral pig herds as input to the two spread models resulted in a typical outbreak that lasted 1-2 R. Sanson / Preventive Veterinary Medicine 81 (2007) 213-223 221 months and could affect about 100 cattle herds. The multi-epidemiologic modeling framework is currently being integrated with livestock transportation, carcass disposal and economic models to create a scalable and generic decision support system.
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(2008)Journal ArticleModeling potential disease spread in wildlife populations is important for predicting, responding to and recovering from a foreign animal disease incursion. To make spatial epidemic predictions, the target animal species of interest must first be represented in space. We conducted a series of simulation experiments to determine how estimates of the spatial distribution of white-tailed deer impact the predicted magnitude and distribution of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks. Outbreaks were simulated using a susceptible-infected-recovered geographic automata model. The study region was a 9-county area ( 24 000 km(2)) of southern Texas. Methods used for creating deer distributions included dasymetric mapping, kriging and remotely sensed image analysis. The magnitudes and distributions of the predicted outbreaks were evaluated by comparing the median number of deer infected and median area affected ( km2), respectively. The methods were further evaluated for similar predictive power by comparing the model predicted outputs with unweighted pair group method with arithmetic mean (UPGMA) clustering. There were significant differences in the estimated number of deer in the study region, based on the geostatistical estimation procedure used ( range: 385 939 - 768 493). There were also substantial differences in the predicted magnitude of the FMD outbreaks ( range: 1 563 - 8 896) and land area affected ( range: 56 - 447 km2) for the different estimated animal distributions. UPGMA clustering indicated there were two main groups of distributions, and one outlier. We recommend that one distribution from each of these two groups be used to model the range of possible outbreaks. Methods included in cluster 1 ( such as county-level disaggregation) could be used in conjunction with any of the methods in cluster 2, which included kriging, NDVI split by ecoregion, or disaggregation at the regional level, to represent the variability in the model predicted outbreak distributions.
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(2007)Conference PaperManagement response to contagious disease outbreaks requires rapid application of appropriate control measures (for example, quarantine and vaccination), but with little current or empirical data about how the disease may spread. This means that modelling is one of the few available options for making important decisions, and geographical modelling is a key approach. While there are many models that deal with disease spread within livestock populations, there are few that deal explicitly with widely dispersed animal populations such as unfenced livestock and wild and feral animals. It is for this purpose that we have developed a geographic automata model, Sirca, to simulate possible outbreaks of disease in wild and unfenced animal populations.
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(2007)Journal ArticleThe construction of habitat models is a repeatable technique for describing and mapping species distributions, the utility of which lies in enabling management to predict where a species is likely to occur within a landscape. Typically, habitat models have been used to establish habitat requirements for threatened species; however they have equal applicability for modelling local populations of common species. Often, few data exist on local populations of common species, and issues of abundance and habitat selection at varying scales are rarely addressed. We provide a habitat suitability model for the common wombat (Vombatus ursinus) in southern New South Wales. This species is currently perceived as abundant throughout its extensive range across temperate regions of eastern Australia, yet little factual survey data exist and populations appear under threat. We use wombat burrows to reflect habitat selection and as our basis for ecological modelling. We found that environmental variables representing proximity to cover, measures of vegetation and proximity to watercourses are important predictors of burrow presence. Extrapolation of habitat models identified an abundance of habitat suitable for burrows. However, burrows in many suitable areas were abandoned. Our estimate of the population size was similar to the total annual mortality associated with road-kill. Theoretically, given the availability of suitable habitat, common wombat populations in the region should be thriving. It seems likely that this area once supported a much higher number of wombats; however limiting factors such as road mortality and disease have reduced the populations. The persistence of wombats in the study region must be supported by migration from other populations. Our findings challenge the perception that wombats are currently common and not in need of monitoring, suggesting that perceptions of abundance are often clouded by socio-political motives rather than informed by biological and ecological factors.
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(2007)Journal ArticleWe investigated the potential role of feral pigs and wild deer as FMD reservoirs with a susceptible-latent-infected-recovered geographic-automata model, using spatially referenced data from southern Texas, USA. An uncontrolled FMD outbreak initiated in feral pigs and in wild deer might infect up to 698 (90% prediction interval 181, 1387) and 1557 (823, 2118) cattle and affect an area of 166 km(2) (53, 306) and 455 km(2) (301, 588), respectively. The predicted spread of FMD virus infection was influenced by assumptions we made regarding the number of incursion sites and the number of neighborhood interactions between herds. Our approach explicitly incorporates the spatial relationships between domesticated and non-domesticated animal populations, providing a new framework to explore the impacts, costs, and strategies for the control of foreign animal diseases with a potential wildlife reservoir. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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(2006)Journal ArticleThe preferred habitats, home range and activity patterns of sub-adult mulloway Argyrosomus japonicus (Sciaenidae) in the Georges River, New South Wales, Australia, were investigated using ultrasonic telemetry. Tags were surgically implanted in 9 hatchery-reared and 12 wild-caught mulloway (330 to 730 mm total length, TL). Fish were tracked for 2 periods of continuous tracking over 72 h in a 15 km section of river, once daily for a 20 d period, and up to 3 times mo–1 for 11 mo. Key habitats were identified as discrete holes or basins up to 20 m deep. Mulloway preferred this deep hole habitat as small fish (hatchery-reared, 300 to 500 mm TL) remained in these deep holes both day and night, while large fish (wild, 500 to 800 mm TL) ventured outside the holes at night. Maximum home range of small and large mulloway was 6000 and 17710 m2, respectively, and home range correlated significantly with length. Small fish moved up to 7 km d-1 while large fish moved up to 16 km d-1. Small fish released in shallow water initially had significantly greater movements than those released directly over deep holes, with movement up to 10 km in 3 d. Activity patterns varied between small and large fish, with significantly larger movements by large fish during the night and early morning than daytime. Five wild-caught mulloway tracked over 11 mo showed strong fidelity to holes within their particular home range. Mulloway should be stocked directly into their deep holes to minimise movements. The use of key habitats by mulloway indicate that their survival will be sensitive to stocking density. Optimal stocking density could be estimated from the area of key habitat in the target estuary.
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