Demand for cargo airships in Australia: An analysis of mode choice decision making by logistics professionals

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Copyright: Neal, Craig
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Abstract
Although cargo airships could potentially provide greater efficiency and flexibility in freight transportation and reduce demand on infrastructure, currently they remain a theoretical concept. This research aims to examine the factors determining the demand for their services from the perspective of transport logistics professionals. Specifically, the research examines the effects of freight type and freight modal attributes on freight mode choice decisions. As cargo airships is currently a hypothetical mode, an online freight mode choice experiment is conducted and the results analysed using a multinominal logit choice model. This analysis is explored further with the inclusion of qualitative data gathered through follow-up semi-structured interviews. The results of the online freight mode choice experiment established the potential demand for the cargo airship mode to be up to 27% of market share. The factor that provides the greatest variation in the choice model results is the different freight types, which include perishables, non perishables, oversize overmass (OSOM), and high value time sensitive (HVTS). Across these freight types the sensitivity of the modes (road, rail, sea and airship) to the variable attributes (price, time, reliability and frequency) varied substantially. Additionally, the willingness to pay (WTP) for the cargo airship mode for travel time saved is estimated to be $23.15 per tonne per hour. Simulations are further conducted from the choice model results to ascertain the potential market share of various different model cargo airships, including the exemplar model (ML868) by adjusting their speed (time) and cost (price) to reflect their predicted actual attribute levels. From these simulations it is established that there is potential demand in the Australian domestic freight market with the LMH-1 having the lowest market share of 7.56% and the ARH50 having the highest market share of 24.90%.
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Author(s)
Neal, Craig
Supervisor(s)
Koo, Tay
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Publication Year
2019
Resource Type
Thesis
Degree Type
Masters Thesis
UNSW Faculty
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