The Deciders are Undecided: undecided voters, election campaigns, political media, and democracy in Australia

Abstract

Undecided, or “swinging” voters are the explicit target of every Australian election campaign, and yet there is very little scholarship about them. Popular and academic discourse surrounding them is dominated by a stereotype that these voters are, on the whole, ignorant about politics, uninterested in political media, and disengaged from civic life. This stereotype fuels concerns that democracy is in crisis, as those who decide elections are seen to lack the political knowledge or sophistication to sensibly vote or participate. Political media – especially those that do not conform to normative standards of journalism and seek more to be entertaining – are embroiled in crisis narratives.

This thesis brings together, for the first time, original survey data specifically about undecided voters and media habits, and interviews with elite political and media practitioners. These data provide a unique perspective on undecided voters; their behaviours and media habits, and how they are defined and targeted in election campaigns. These enquiries, in turn, open up broader questions about how swinging voters are deployed into bigger arguments about civic virtue, participation and engagement, the ability of media to serve democracy, and democratic health itself.

The thesis challenges the stereotypes surrounding undecided voters, finding that they are a diverse cohort, with a range of demographic characteristics, levels of political interest and sophistication, and media habits. However, diversity among undecided voters tends not to be recognised in election campaigns, which continue to be dominated by simple messaging, are broadcast on free-to-air television, and are designed for a single cohort which is presumed to be ignorant and uninterested. While most practitioners individually recognise that undecided voters are diverse and that media fragmentation provides potential to develop more targeted messaging, risk-aversion – particularly in the major parties – is high.

This thesis also challenges normative ideas around political media and virtuous civic behaviour, arguing that the concept of “political media” needs be expanded to recognise an evolving mediascape, increasing partisan dealignment, and changing civic norms. As such, ideas of political participation must also be widened to include non-traditional, often mediated, political activities. This expansion around notions of good citizen behaviour recognises that change does not imply decline, and challenges narratives of democratic crisis.