Vulnerability to sea level rise of coastal communities in Central Java: Developing a systems approach and perspective

Abstract

The bio-physical and social impacts of sea level rise and vulnerability of communities have been deliberated upon at length in various scientific studies. Less studied are the feedback mechanisms that influence vulnerability of the communities in a socio-ecological system in the context of sea level rise. The aim of this study is to develop a systems perspective of vulnerability of selected coastal occupational groups such as fishers, brackish pond farmers and labourers to sea level rise, which will help to uncover feedback mechanisms. The study area is the Demak regency of the Central Java province of Indonesia. This region is affected by hazards such as land subsidence, tidal floods and coastal erosion, which make it particularly vulnerable to rise in sea level.

The sustainable livelihoods approach and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change framework (IPCC) on vulnerability provided a platform for the quantitative analysis of vulnerability of the occupational groups. The quantitative analysis of vulnerability was conducted to develop a snap-shot view of vulnerability of the occupational groups before an in-depth analysis into the complexity of feedback mechanisms that influence the vulnerability. Vulnerability indices of occupational groups to sea level rise were constructed by aggregating the indices of adaptive capacity, sensitivity and exposure components of the IPCC framework of vulnerability. Livelihood capitals were used as indicators of adaptive capacity. Subsequently, participatory rural appraisal techniques (PRA) including historical time line analysis, seasonality calendar, focus group discussions, daily routine analysis and resource mapping were employed to identify the feedback mechanisms in the whole socio-ecological system. These feedback mechanisms were illustrated using causal loop diagrams.

A key contribution of this study is the use of the sustainable livelihoods framework, IPCC framework and qualitative system dynamics to improve the understanding of feedback mechanisms that influence the vulnerability of occupational groups. Complementary usage of PRA and categorical data to develop this understanding also contributes to the array of hybrid methodological approaches applied in the context of a socio-ecological system. The feedback mechanisms showed that vulnerability of the occupational groups in the study area is influenced by processes at multiple scales and revealed the increasing social vulnerability of the occupational groups due to the presence of undesirable feedback mechanisms.

Key findings of the study include the identification of intervention points in the socio-ecological system such as coastal protection measures and various livelihood capitals, for initiating adaptive planning and actions. Additionally, vulnerability indices showed that fishers and brackish pond farmers were the most vulnerable to sea level rise, while labourers were better in terms of their vulnerability index values. The research has investigated the livelihood transitions of the occupational groups in the past and identified the drivers of transitions, which included lack of financial capital, decreasing natural capital, old age and other personal reasons. An adaptive planning framework is also proposed by the research to deliberate on the dynamics of the feedback mechanisms in the socio-ecological system of the villages under study. This approach of systems modelling of vulnerability can inform policy making for vulnerability reduction and adaptation in future scenarios of sea level rise, with due regard to the complexity and dynamics of the socio-ecological system of coastal communities.